Playing Devil’s Advocate

We all want the iPhone 4 to come out on Verizon, but do Apple and Verizon want that to happen?

Let’s make these assumptions, based on what I’ve heard and read:

• A sizeable amount of AT&T iPhone users would switch to Verizon if they offered the iPhone.
• A sizeable amount of Verizon Android users would switch to the iPhone if offered by Verizon.
• Android phones are made available to Verizon cheaper than the iPhone is made available to AT&T.

Given that, what incentive is there for either company to grab the iPhone? If Verizon gets the iPhone with a deal similar to AT&T’s, its more lucrative Android users may switch to the less profitable iPhone, causing Verizon to lose money on the deal. On the other hand, a deal more like Motorola’s could cause Apple to lose profits because all its users are switching to a less profitable carrier, which would probably outweigh those on Verizon who buy the phone.

Using this logic, it would be risky for either party to agree to any of this, and that’s why I’m skeptical, though hopeful, that the iPhone will come out on Verizon. I’m hopeful because it would still be great for the customers. What’s great for the customers might not be great for the companies, sadly, and that’s where the skepticism comes in.

That said, I think that even if they decide not to get the iPhone on Verizon, they’d still be in negotiations, or at least let it leak out that they’re negotiating, if only to make the other carriers and manufacturers squirm.