Could This Be a Problem?

I’m probably doing too much worrying again (I think I might need a worry hat), but this quote by Engadget is concerning:

Shockingly enough, a “possible acquisition of Adobe by Microsoft were among the options” of stopping the skyrocketing growth (of mobile devices).

Now, I think someone jumped to the wrong conclusion on this one. What technology does Adobe have that would affect any smartphone platform? Just Flash, and Apple has conclusively proven the irrelevancy of that technology.

Adobe does, however, have plenty of technology that could threaten the PC market, in its Creative Suite. Without that on the Mac, Apple would have a real problem.

While Apple’s iOS devices are steadily eroding the market for home computers, the market for work machines is still dominated by the PC market. And in the market for work software, Adobe is one of the largest players, probably the largest for cross-platform software.

The tide is currently in Apple’s favor. Right now, users who love to create stuff can choose between the two operating systems, and with the stagnation of the Windows ecosystem they now consistently choose the Mac. The trend is growing even faster now as software like AutoCAD is being brought to the OS.

These users, however, are inexplicably trapped with these software programs. AutoCAD users for the longest time had no real choice but to use Windows for their work. Microsoft lost its lock on another important market segment when Autodesk created its new Mac version.

Creative users are among the most influential for an OS company. Their fortunes are tied to third-party software, and the more of these users you have, the better position your OS is in. Right now, the Mac software ecosystem is more vibrant and more successful than Microsoft’s is.

If, hypothetically, Microsoft did buy Adobe, and then Adobe stopped Mac development, many Mac users would be unwillingly and grudgingly yanked back into the Windows ecosystem. Then they would start creating for Windows again, because they’ll miss the software they had access to on the Mac.

This is, admittedly, a small segment of the market, but buying Adobe and pulling the plug on the Mac could, indirectly, rejuvenate Windows development.

The most obvious comparison is Office, which Microsoft develops for both OS’s. The issue with that is two things: that Office users are usually functionaries and not developers who can make an OS more appealing, and that Office’s competition compares much better to the software package. The same cannot be said of Adobe’s software.

Photoshop has some competition that’s pretty good, like Pixelmator, but it’s still not the same, and that’s only one element of the Creative Suite. InDesign has the greatest lock-in because Quark Xpress, quite frankly, sucks, and those who depend on InDesign really depend on it. Illustrator’s competition is also weaker than Photoshop’s. Even needing one of these packages would force you to jump ship.

The good news is that these users tend to be quite resourceful in the face of adversity. CS5 would probably suffice for several years (though copies of the software would be worth more than their weight in gold on eBay), and that’s plenty of time for Apple or a good third-party developer to create a competitor. This raises the possibility that Microsoft’s acquisition would backfire as designers & developers get addicted to software that’s not merely equal to what’s on Windows, but better than what Adobe can make.

In any case, it’s interesting to think about the dynamics at play. One more thing: this was supposed to be a “secret” meeting, but somebody spilled the beans. I’ll bet it was an official leak from Adobe, because Apple is probably in an even better position to make an offer to buy Adobe just to keep Microsoft from getting it. Considering the fight that Apple had with Google over mobile advertising, I don’t think they would be reticent about making an offer if there was even a hint that Microsoft was trying to acquire it. This could shape up to be interesting.

Or I could just be over-analyzing the situation, and Microsoft and Adobe really are working on some vague mobile OS partnership that will amount to nothing. It’s happened before, after all.