What’s Next for WebOS: The Option List

So, now that HP has announced intentions to kick WebOS loose, what might happen to WebOS?

Option A: License it out. I’m not certain this will work very well - the market is already saturated with zillions of Android and WP7 phones, and both these platforms are much better supported by third-party developers. If HP couldn’t use its might to make something happen, it’s certainly not going to work playing third fiddle at Samsung.

Option B: Sell it to RIM. I covered this yesterday (good timing, eh?) and I think it all still applies even more now. There are only two phone companies that have a still-loyal audience that they can do a bait-and-switch with WebOS with: RIM and Nokia. Since Nokia is in transition hell with WP7 and MeeGo already, I think throwing money into WebOS is the last thing they want to do. That leaves RIM, and if they can integrate WebOS in with existing corporate BlackBerry tools and mate it to their better-regarded hardware, I think they have a good shot at success with WebOS.

Option C: Sell it to a carrier. “Welcome to the Sprint Store! Where all our phones run WebOS.” If a carrier wanted to differentiate itself in areas besides network and pricing, being the only carrier with WebOS would be a good move. Kicking out every other OS to give your users no choice but to pick WebOS would be a better move. It’d hurt in the short term, but you could single-handedly build a viable market for WebOS apps that way.

Option D: Sell it to Amazon. Amazon’s proven it can move E-Readers. Maybe it can move WebOS tablets. Their company tradition of pricing aggressiveness can only help it compete. I think they’re already well along with an Android solution, though, given that they’ve invested a lot in it. Also, they might cut their own throats by unnecessarily screwing developers.

Option E: Sell it to Facebook. If Facebook wants to move into phones and tablets, this is a good way to do it. Somehow, though, I see phones and tablets not being all that successful with Facebook, and I also get the sense that if Facebook can make its own OS from scratch, it will, and if they don’t they’ll probably break away a lot of the features that made WebOS great to make it more Facebook-centric. This is the option I’m least certain of, however.

Those are the only options I seriously consider HP to have. Here are the ones I’m rejecting:

Option F: Sell it to Apple. Apple doesn’t need to buy a thing to make iOS more competitive. They might have bought it to eliminate competition, but HP has just proven that there is no threat from WebOS to Apple. If Apple was into buying technology just because they can, they would have grabbed Nintendo, TiVo, Adobe, or all sorts of other companies Apple’s been mistakenly rumored to be considering for purchase. When they do buy something - say, PA Semi - they make something out of it, like A5 processors. What would WebOS provide?

Option G: Sell it to another phone company that isn’t RIM. HP was in a better position than any of them to push WebOS, with the aforementioned exception of Nokia. Look where it got them. Unless it becomes a regional thing like Android tablets in Korea (where the iPad isn’t doing all that wonderfully), it’s not going to take off any better under someone else’s wing.

I think I’ve covered the gamut. I believe RIM would have the most success with it, if they act intelligently with it - which they admittedly don’t have a stellar track record for lately. I think selling it to a carrier would be really interesting, but that’s probably a crazy idea. Amazon could turn it into something that’s the most true to WebOS’s form, but they won’t help the platform problems by giving the shaft to developers like they do now with their “appstore”. Facebook would have to really alter WebOS to suit its needs, I think.

The rumors right now seem to trend towards licensing it, though. I’ll bet it’s the most likely, but it’s also one of the worst moves - I’m certain it would kill WebOS dead.